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Prepared
by Richard VanMussell
Premise:
The
desire of most writers is to see not only their book in print -to an industry, publisher
and writer accepted level of quality- but, to reach an audience beyond friends
and family.
Submitting
manuscripts to “traditional” publishers (does not accept funding from the
writer, may pay an advance, provides services to generate sales, relies on book
sales, other than to the writer, to remain in business) direct or through an
agent, knowing acceptance is not guaranteed, alone attests to some level
understanding by the writer that salability is an element in the approval
process.
-For most writers approaching a “traditional”
publisher direct, or through an agent is likely the first alternative selected.
Most,
if not all, writers understand the difficulty in getting accepted, and many
understand acceptance is based on the potential of reaching a sales volume
sufficient to at least cover the costs, and at best to turn a profit, even if
the writer is not aware of exact costs. And both agent and traditional
publishers rely on book sales to remain in business.
If
vanity or self-publishing alternatives are selected, the writer understands to
a great degree, the ability to reach beyond intimates will be more or all the
responsibility of the writer rather than the publisher. Most publishers in this
sector are clear as to what they will and will not do for the writer.
Writers
accepted by “traditional” publishers, as with the publisher, hope for sales of
the writer’s book, and with many publishers, have knowledge/expectations as to
the necessary number of books to be sold to be profitable.
As
such writers understand there is a financial risk traditional publishers take,
but in turn understand, to varying degrees, the efforts the publisher will make
to ensure some level of sales success. If a loss is incurred it can relate to
an error in potential market acceptance; sales did not exceed the cost to
produce and promote; the potential remains good and more promotion (dollars) is
necessary to build awareness. It does not however, reflect the writer’s
inability to promote.
Writers
rely on the reputation, written and verbal word of publishers to perform in
both the writer’s and publisher’s best interest. Aside from specific terms of
the contract there remains an understanding both the publisher and writer are
seeking a common goal of achieving sales.
The
writer’s decision to sign with a traditional publisher is based upon the
understanding of a publishers desire and efforts to reach some level of
acceptable sales. And, inspite of production timetables, competition with other
titles for available dollars spent on book purchases, promotional schedule,
there s an implied release as soon as possible to start generating sales.
Manuscript
acceptance rates are low, as such writers will sign with less known publishers
to fulfill their needs, but, it remains, they rely on the ability to trust the
claims made by the publisher.
Writers
would be less inclined to sign were it known up front, the publishers was to
make little or no effort to reach an accepted level of sales; would rely on the writer to perform tasks typical
of the publisher, could not substantiate claims of performance, and would be
further less inclined if the writer had to pay the publisher.
Though
American Book Publishing Group does address the writer’s desire to have a
quality finished product, they too makes several claims addressing the desire
of those writers seeking to reach readers beyond merely friends and family.
Objective:
To evaluate the veracity of and /or substantiate the claims made by ABPG and Publishers Direct Discount Bookstore.
The
analysis examines specific claims made by American Book Publishing Group (ABPG)
and Publishers Direct Discount Bookstore (Publishers Direct)
ABPG
claims:
-“support each of our titles with
the kind of innovative marketing and production methods to reach the broadest
range of readers.”
-As the book is in
production “our marketing people will be
getting out the
word about an exciting new American Book title.
-Our own catalogs and newsletter inform the media of
an upcoming release and other
forms of promotion of our titles.”
-In addition to the aforementioned, authors are provided an elaborate in-house guide for promotion and other tasks, after which, “all that remains we fervently hope is a long and successful sales run for your book!”
-To provide authors a realistic opportunity and
alternative to the status quo ABPG
is becoming an early adapter and leader in the electronic book delivery market.
-“More than 75 of the top writers sites link to us’
-“Good books should be available… our books will not
go out of print or be remaindered or
stripped.”
-we “stock our books in our warehouse as well as
others.”
-after an in-depth description of the publishing
industry, ABPG concludes with. “rest assured” we have evaluated the business
and made strategic plans for the 21 fist century.
-“We carefully select from our manuscripts and chose
those with promise.”
Publishers
Direct claims:
- unbeatable prices on the best fiction and nonfiction
-“Our prices are typically lower by 5 to 46% than
Amazon, Barnes and Noble, Borders
and other bookstores.
-We carefully select our titles… to enhance the joy
and satisfaction that comes from informative and quality literature
-“We are not owned by any chain or publisher, we
prefer the ability to select and enhance our list with books of great value at
highly discounted prices.”
The
aforementioned claims were selected because they are definitive, not mired in
subtlety and can be verified from sources other than ABPG or Publishers Direct.
-Sources in addition to ABPG and Pd
Book include:
--Amazon.com
--Barnes and Noble on line bookstore.
--Borders
-- Additional online sources for book purchasing
--25 independent bookstores
nationwide, selected at random
--Secondary source material.
Though other claims are made on the ABPG site these are subject to qualifiers provided by ABPG or are vague, or too open to semantics to make any conclusion. Examples include:
-The returnable deposit. There are too many qualifiers provided by ABPG that apply before the return of deposits. Including; deposits returned the first quarter after the formal release, later qualified again to include after a minimum of sales which too includes within a specific time frame. Whether or not writers signing understand all the perimeters surrounding the return of deposits before or when signing can cause concern after the fact but non-return will be defended by ABPG by reminding the writer of the qualifications.
-ABPG does not center its focus on bookstore, which may imply some focus but, is poorly defined as to the manner or extent, and can mean so little as to be virtually non-existent. And would be clearer if it was stated as “no effort” or, a percent of subjective effort. This statement however is important when determining sales by the remaining types of outlets available for book buying.
The
information presented is based upon an evaluation of the approximate 211 ABPG titles
listed on PD Book.
-
There are approximately 194 titles listed on Publishers Direct web
page, under the heading Browse Our Aisles.
An additional eight titles are listed under “Coming Soon’ and seven
under “Whats New” four under “Holiday” and one under “Gift.”
Publishers Direct was selected as source for ABPG titles for several reasons.
-
ABPG, unlike other publisher, does not list their titles rather,
directs readers to check Publishers Direct to view the quality of their cover
designs.
- ABPG informs readers of the availability of their titles on Amazon, Barnes and Noble, Borders and other bookstores, but these sites do not list titles by publisher.
-
All but three books listed on Publishers Direct are published by ABPG.
The Relationship Between ABPG and Publishers Direct
Though Publishers Direct makes claim to not be owned
by any publisher the following does present a more than casual relationship
between ABPG and Publishers Direct.
Both list 756
E.500 South,
-It could appear, after careful selection from the
millions of titles available, Publishers Direct feels, aside from a few
exceptions, only ABPG titles are worthy of inclusion “to enhance the joy and
satisfaction that comes from informative and quality literature.”
More
likely; Publishers Direct does not select, rather invites other publishers
and/or authors to place their books on the site.
-Publishers Direct will add other writers/publishers titles for an upfront fee of $175, a deduct from list of 30% and a stock to supply at least one month’s estimated sales.
Three primary reasons can explain why very few titles from either other publishers or authors are listed on Publishers Direct.
-Other publishers and writers are unaware of the offer. Which
could mean Publishers Direct does little to build awareness.
-Other publishers and writers have declined the offer, regardless of how many have had contact with Publishers Direct. Reasons could include; the cost to potential sales is not justified, funds are not available to spend on inclusion.
-Only one title from a publisher’s list was selected by either Publishers Direct, or submitted by another publisher for inclusion.
-It is individual authors and not publishers who have accepted Publishers Direct offer.
For
certain the greater exposure of a title can lead to more sales, but exposure
encompasses awareness of titles and awareness of source to purchase, and the
interplay of each. A readers seeing three ads, reading three reviews, follow a
recommendation, for a title will still
purchase one copy at one location. Sales source will in turn promote specific
titles and pricing discounts to “lure” readers/buyers into their store.
Thus,
any publisher or writer would evaluate where to place their book in terms of
level of exposure to potential sales, even if
merely a “gut” decision, and especially when costs are a factor,
including product costs. Recall, part of the criteria for inclusion on
Publishers Direct is a stock of estimated first month sales.
As
interesting and telling as inventory turns by title on Publishers Direct would
be, is it not possible refusal to be included by publishers and writers could
relate to what little exposure Publishers Direct offers and thus what little
sales would be derived?
-Publishers Direct in not easily located through
most search engines when relying on generic words such as online bookstores,
discount online sources for books, etc.
-Publishers Direct does not appear to promote
themselves or, if so, is restrictive as to where.
-Most readers become aware of Publishers Direct vis a vis the ABPG site, when as writers, seeking information about ABPG and not seeking information on book sales outlets.
Publishers Direct may select titles of great value they desire to add to their site but,
the failure to have listed more than a few titles from other than ABPG does
indicate Publishers Direct either is not pursuing other publishers to any great
extent, or, has had their offer for inclusion rejected. Certainly, additional
titles from other publishers or authors may enhance Publishers Direct, but with
the few listed; the degree of enhancement is questionable.
If
Publishers Direct claim; not to be owned by a publisher, is correct, if the
image they project of independence, that selection of titles is wholly their
own and not influenced by ownership, then of all publishers aware of the offer,
only ABPG has accepted in the past five years.
Does this mean of all publishers ABPG is the only one to find Publishers
Direct a good source to list most if not all their titles by fulfilling both an
exposure and sales criteria? Does this mean ABPG has paid $175 for each title’s
inclusion? Does this mean when Publishers Direct was created of all publishers
who provided them with a list of titles, only ABPG titles met the criteria of
great value or selection “to enhance the joy and satisfaction that comes from
informative and quality literature.”
And,
with no other publisher seeing a value in listing their titles with Publishers
Direct, does this not say much about Publishers Direct inability, relative or
not to size, to generate meaningful sales volumes? Would this not relate as
well to sales of ABPG titles?
Or, regardless of ownership, is it more likely Publishers Direct was created as an outlet for APBG titles, that there is more than coincidence and a casual sharing of office space?
-If true, certain claims from Publishers Direct regarding title selection by some form of merit are misleading when the primary selection criteria seems to be the publisher’s name.
-If not true, then Publishers Direct claim that titles are both carefully selected and selected for great value goes not much further than the titles of ABPG. Given all the books currently available, the sales histories, awards and honors, reviews earned by many, the reputation of the authors, it sheds doubt about Publishers Direct ability to evaluate quality or sales potential.
Of
the over 200 ABPG titles listed on Publishers Direct
Barnes and
Noble results:
-40% are available used, available from used book
sellers or are considered out of print.
-50%
are not found on the site
-10%
are listed for sale new.
Amazon
results
81% are listed on Amazon
--18% of those listed have a sales ranking of “none”
indicating no sales.
19% are not found on
Amazon.
On Amazon, approximately 34% of the ABPG
titles are either not available or have no sales on Amazon. (19% not found plus
18% of the 81% listed but having no sales or, 15%)
Both Amazon and Barnes and Noble require
publishers to provide discounts to be permitted to list on their sites. Even
Publishers Direct requires a 30% discount.
The
“not found” on Amazon might be explained as; ABPG may not have submitted these
titles to Amazon. Amazon relies on Book in Print for inclusion on their site.
Publishers may “enroll” as under Amazon Advantage, which covers new books and
adds the statement “usually ships within 24 hours.” Amazon offers another
program which covers new as well as used and hard to find books.
Barnes
and Noble require publishers first to become recognized vendors and if eligible
must provide a stock of up to two books for each title listed, in addition to
providing any promotional materials. The low percent of ABPG titles found on
Barnes and Noble could be attributed to;
having not as yet been submitted, but if so, why the delay as seen by
the vast difference listed when compared to Amazon?
ABPG
states “we stock our books.” There are no qualifiers such as “Some” or “Most”
titles. It would appear either most ABPG
titles are not eligible for inclusion on the Barnes and Noble site; or, ABPG
has not approached B/N with most titles offered; or, stock is not available to
meet B/N criteria, or all or a combination.
This not only brings into question ABPG’s claim of stock, but it makes
the ABPG claims of availability, distribution coverage and support and reaching
the broadest range of readers less substantive.
ABGP claims of titles are never out of print is questionable given the publication dates.
Publication dates of ABPG titles as listed on Amazon and Barnes and
noble are:
Publication Date %
ABPG Titles
2001* 4
2002 30
2003 16
2004 41
2005 9
100%
*Barnes and Noble lists publication date as ’01 while in some cases Amazon listed the date as ’02
If it is a matter of timing between publication dates and placement on either Amazon or Barnes and Noble then of the 19% ABPG titles not found on Amazon and 50% not found on Barnes and Noble but found on Publishers Direct must be from late 2004 to 2005.
BUT, ABPG production timetables alone can not explain the discrepancy between the relative speed to list titles on Publishers Direct as compared to other on-line sources. Nor can it be said the books of authors who signed, or whose books are to be released in 2005 can explain the discrepancy.
-Under the Publishers Direct headings of “Coming Soon” and “Whats New,” both of which imply some form of most current, are titles found on both Publishers Direct and Amazon, with publication date ranging from March of 2004 to August 2005.
It would appear other factors are in play, influencing the title release to other than Publishers Direct.
ABPG and Publishers Direct reference “formal release” and “advance sale” respectively, referring to availability of titles. It has been said; ABPG requires writers perform certain tasks including submitting articles for inclusion on the ABPG site and, reviews prepared and copies of books sent to reviewers (books paid for by the writer) as part of fulfilling the criteria for formal release.
Is it possible a “formal release” is necessary before titles are submitted to Amazon or Barnes and Noble? Would that not appear counterproductive to a timetable for attaining reader sales? Unless Publishers Direct was given preferential treatment. If so, then Publishers Direct should show a strong initial offering sales of titles before they “hit the streets” to justify the preferential treatment. That being the case, other publishers should too see the benefit of dealing with Publishers Direct. Unless the preferential treatment were only provided to ABPG, or a condition required by ABPG. Either way that would indicate some level of relationship, and control exercised by either company over the other that lessens Publishers Direct claim of independence in how titles are selected.
Would it not be more productive, if while writers were performing these tasks, to have books listed to coincide with the reviews regardless of availability for shipping, as in place your order now, due out on Blank date?
-Only one ABPG title was listed on Amazon as an advanced release.
Of interest is the availability, and whereabouts of those ABPG titles prior to 2001. ABPG has been in existence since at least 1999, (as Forbes Publishing) when they claimed to be able to produce books in as little as 3 months. Later this was expanded to go as far out as one year. Now, there is no indication of production time.
Of
those ABPG titles, published prior to 2002, some are now listed under different
publishers. Many remain to be found. Of
those located, virtually all authors parted with ABPG for a variety of reasons, including; lack of
marketing support, books not available including in other than print formats,
royalty issues, quality issues, pricing issues…
A
complete listing of all ABPG titles prior to 2002 and their current whereabouts
would be significant. Until then, the promises of availability, never going out
of print, support of titles all become questionable and in particular if those
titles are still part of the ABPG “family” and not even listed on Publishers
Direct, or conveniently listed under categorizes where readers browse.
-If it were the author’s request to part with ABPG,
and move to another publisher, or self-publish, why then would the
“independent” Publishers Direct site remove the title? Does having another publisher diminish the
content quality, value, information or enhancement? Or does ABPG have some
influence over Publishers Direct which permits ABPG to have a say in what can
and can not be included. Neither adds credibility to Publishers Direct image of
independent selection of titles.
-If the author parting with ABPG requests their
title be removed from Publishers Direct, even if picked up by another publisher,
or self-published, why eliminate one element of exposure?
-If titles from before 2002 are available and not
listed on Publishers Direct would it not lessen ABPG’s claim to support titles
in even the most basic means available, simply listing the title on a source in
which they have influence: Publishers Direct.
-It could be titles listed and publication dates
relate to ABPG’s formal release policy,
that some titles have been with ABPG prior to 2002, but were not
released until 2002 or after.
--If true, it does not indicate ABPG’s desire to get
books out into readers hands in a manner indicative of need to recoup
investment.
--Or the length of production time at ABPG exceeds
an industry average, which could imply staffing problems; as in, experience
(low end of learning curve); staff credentials (not qualified); high staff
turn-over rates; inability to hire sufficient numbers of editors and designers;
outside sources are backlogged; or, credit issues, (printers unwilling to print
without payment first)
--It is worth noting; ABPG editors and designers are paid commission on
sales, from 5 to 7% of NET. (writer’s too are paid royalties on net not retail
price). Though there is some discrepancy regarding commissions being not being paid
on advance copies purchased by writers for reviewers, and any copy purchased by
writers regardless of when, it remains editors and designers are not paid
commission for all books sold. If after time, book sales are slow, low, or
nonexistent, editors and designers may be forced to seek employment elsewhere.
It too could be Publishers Direct and perhaps ABPG
sites are in need of updating. But, if “What’s New” titles are an indicator of
need, then those titles from September to December of 2004 and most in 2005 are
possibly being neglected, and release time and sales put-off.
It too could be possible release times are dependant
upon authors completing certain tasks and the authors of those books will not
have their titles formally released, nor gain access to Amazon Barnes and Noble
or other sites until the tasks have been completed.
For both ABPG and the writer, this would seem in no
one’s best interest; if book sales to readers were a primary objective say
nothing of necessary to remain in business.
At this point, it is necessary to determine more
regarding the actual dates writers sign, release dates, the nature of and
reasons writers are unable or will not complete the tasks, an evaluation of the
tasks and outcome from completion as they relate to a “successful sales run,”
and the effectiveness of the ABPG “plan.”
The following analysis of discount and unit sales
could act as an indicator of performance as it directly relates to the tasks
and perceived gain for both ABPG and the writer upon completion.
-In addition, the merits of having the writer, especially
an unknown, perform the tasks versus the publisher must also be considered.
Discount
pricing is relative to an initial price. To claim a discount when the initial
base price is “higher” than average and
the discounted price remains higher is subject to debate as it pertains to a
“real” discount.
Though
pricing is subject to demand, and book price discounting is common practice,
profits are made more from the quantity sold then from raising the price to
follow demand. It is unlikely a New York Times best selling title will go from
25 dollars to 35 dollars because of demand.
Discounts come into play as they pertain to competitor’s pricing of the
same title, quantities purchased, desire
to increase store traffic, etc.. There remains however, an inherent industry
price perhaps a price consumers will pay and are reluctant to pay more
regardless of “want.”
ABPG titles and discounted prices listed on Publishers Direct are substantially higher than the industry’s typically pricing.
Typical book prices ranges. Note;
ABPG books are considered softback.
Hardback
Softback
Paperback
Fiction $24.90 $12 to 16 depending $5.78
Nonfiction 33.57 on subject/length
Juvenile 18.40
The
average range after discount price, of
ABPG titles listed on Publishers Direct is
$21 to 22 dollars. Over half the ABPG discounted price titles are over
the $16 dollar mark which makes the typical range of Publishers Direct listed titles, 20 to 45% higher than the norm.
Publishers Direct claims their pricing is typically 5 to 46% lower than Amazon, Barnes and Noble, Borders and other sources.
Publishers Direct average price is 10% higher than Amazon’s for ABPG titles common to both sites.
The average price range
of ABPG titles listed on Publishers Direct is $21 to 22
The average price range
of ABPG titles listed on Amazon is $19 to 20
A comparison of ABPG
titles common to both Publishers Direct and Amazon indicates: The average price
range of ABPG titles on Publishers Direct of $21 to 22 as compared to $ 19 to
20 or a 10% advantage for Amazon.
The aforementioned in
developed from the following:
-80%
of ABPG titles listed on Publishers Direct are lower priced than on Amazon.
HOWEVER the typical Publishers Direct discount ( 90% of the number of
discounts) is in the 5% bracket, with an
overall average of range of 6 to 8% depending on inclusion or exclusion of the
three high end examples exceeding 50%
-20%
of ABPG titles listed on Amazon are lower priced than Publishers Direct with a range
distributed between 7 to 47% and fairly greater distribution in the 17 to 20%
and 31 to 41% ranges. Ranges provided only where discounts existed.
Publishers Direct Amazon
4 to 10% 91% 4 to 10% 14%
11 to 20 3 17 to 20 29
25 to
35 3 21 to 30 3
40
plus 3 31 to 40 36
100%
41 to 50 18
100%
Real
cost of an ABPG book must take into consideration shipping and handling.
PD
Book charges approximately $3.5/title where as Amazon charges $3.00 plus $.99 per
item. There is however the potential additional $1.99 charge from Amazon for
books requiring three or more weeks for delivery. Thus, for a typical $21.50
average price ABPG book purchased from
Publishers Direct, the total cost is $25.00 as compared to the average priced
ABPG book on Amazon of $19.50 with
shipping totaling $24.50 and if requiring over three weeks; $26.50
Publishers
Direct, when factoring in shipping and handling has an average price advantage
over Amazon.
HOWEVER,
when purchasing two or more books from Amazon, each item adds $.99 to the
total, whereas Publishers Direct will charge the same shipping/handling for
each title; two books from Publishers Direct could add seven dollars to the
cost of books whereas Amazon would be just under four dollars. Thus two
typically priced ABPG books purchased at Publishers Direct could run $50.00 as
compared to $45.00 from Amazon.
The only price advantage Publishers Direct offers (6%) is on single copies of typically priced books when shipping times at Amazon are over three weeks and incur the additional surcharge.
-The accuracy of Amazon’s claim to ship those ABPG
titles listed as “usually shipped
in 24 hours” has not been established.
-Publishers Direct indicates shipping times depends;
if the book order is considered an advance copy. This seems dependent upon
ABPG’s formal release for the title. Since neither is listed by title, shipping
times from Publishers Direct have not been determined by title.
Nevertheless,
shipping times of over one month may not be acceptable to some readers
especially is not known at the time of purchase.
ABPG Titles share by shipping times listed on Amazon.
Shipping Time % of ABPG
Usually within 24 hours 64.8%
3 to 5
weeks
9.7
4 to 6
weeks 17.9
4 to 7 weeks 4.9
1 to 2
months 2.7
100%
Publishers Direct has an
average 16% discount advantage over Barnes and Noble BUT, the advantage is
gained from only one much higher priced title on Barnes and Noble. The typical
discount (90% of discounts offered) is in the 5% range.
Though
unfair to compare new and used pricing it is worth noting, Publishers Direct does not offer used books whereas most other
sites do and as expected, typically for lower than new price. Used books
represent approximately 8% of books sold and do sell especially when content is
the prime reason for purchase. Furthermore, every used book sold eliminates the
potential for a new sale.
Book sales are a measure of and can be used to determine and define success of ABPG titles.
It is not possible to argue success in intrinsic terms. For one, 50 copies sold is a dream come true, to another failure. For some writers, the deposit of $780 paid to ABPG to receive quality editing and cover design, regardless of sales, is, in the end, worth the price regardless of sales.
But ABPG does more than imply; Success is measured in books sold. Their message emphasizes not only production quality but those things associated with sales, such as marketing, distribution and publicity -team of the best editing design and publicity people. They seem aware many, if not most, writers thinking of signing with ABPG are looking at potential sales to measure whatever personal definition of success that may apply. If the ABPG primary message were one of satisfying a writer’s personal need and satisfaction to see one’s book in print, then why make the following claims:
-
Deposits are returned after a minimum of sales. Obvious importance to
some writers who look to sales.
-
Calling money paid a deposit does diminish the appearance of paying for
services, which is associated with vanity presses.
-
Select books with promise. Not
all manuscripts are accepted.
-
Provide an elaborate guide, which if followed could lead to a hopeful
“long and successful sales run.
-
Why provide a guide to assist in promotions if sales were not a goal?
-
Provide innovative and production methods to reach the broadest range
of readers.
-
Announced on their web site when one title reached a substantially good
Amazon sales ranking
-
Their submission form asks writers to define their audience. Unlikely
any responses were “self” or “family and friends.”
-
A review of many of the nonfiction ABPG titles address subjects with
potential large audience appeal which could indicate the writer’s desire to be
read.
-
Makes no mention regarding the importance of mere personal satisfaction
in getting published.
-
Claims books availability in more than print format, implies how
readers prefer product.
-
Claims they are increasing their presence in other distribution areas.
-
Marketing people to get out the word of another ABPG title.
-
Has titles available on Amazon, Barnes and Noble, Borders etc..
These claims are provided to satisfy the desire of most writers to have their work read by as many as possible. And that is sales.
Indeed,
determining some level of sales of ABPG is proper to test ABPG’s claims of all
they provide to writers. Each individual can then assess for themselves to what
level the sales meet their personal definition of success.
Neither ABPG nor Publishers Direct reveal sales figures, but sales can be estimated from information provided from other book selling sources.
Several
steps are necessary to determine ABPG book sales.
-Identify sources where ABPG titles
are sold.
-Share of book sales by source
-Identify major sellers of books by
source and sales figures.
- Address other possible means for
ABPG to obtain sales.
ABPG
title availability from all possible sources. This information is “to date” but
can easily be expanded by increasing the calls into this sectors.
Outlet/source type Availability of ABPG
titles
Book Clubs and mail order None found to date
Warehouse/Price Clubs None found to
date
Food and Drug
None found to date
Other
Not defined to date
Bookstores**
None found to date
*Two titles were found through author’s web site listed a mass merchandiser in addition to other sources.
** As placed there by the author at the authors expense.
Should not be considered a sales to a reader.
The vast majority
if not all ABPG titles are purchased from on-line sources.
-Further substantiated by
--ABPG states their focus is not bookstore shelves.
--No book store contacted to date has any ABPG stocked
--No book stores contacted are aware of an ABPG catalogue nor has had any contact direct with the publisher, or sales representative.
--ABPG writer’s web site appear to direct readers to on-line sources, and off those the predominate are Amazon, Barnes and Noble and Borders.
--ABPG, in addition to Publishers Direct, lists on-line and brick and mortar sources but in the latter case, without stock, sales would be considered, special order.
--Other on-line sources were located offering ABPG title but some list the titles as not available, not stocked or available used only.
Major Book Sellers
The three major book chains and Amazon command over 40% of book sales.
The total North American book sales market is estimated to be approximately $26 billion. “The combined total for media sales (mainly books) of the Barnes and Noble and Borders chains plus Amazon and BN.com was $10.83 billion.”
-Amazon 2.59 billion
-Barnes and Noble/B Dalton chains 4.45 billion
-Bn.com .42 billion
-Borders/Walden Books 3.37 billion
“This compares to the total 2003 bookstore sales of $16.22 billion estimated by the US Census Bureau.” Of the approximately $10 billion remaining;
- an estimated $5 billion is text books and not a market addressed by ABPG
-“specialty religion bookshops accounting for at least a billion in sales a year,” again not a primary market for the vast majority of ABPG titles.
- one to two billion dollars in professional books sold through nontraditional channels,” again not a market addresses by most ABPG titles.
-books sold through mass merchandiser and supermarkets with limited selection of titles, and book clubs; and;
-other sources, including on-line.
Amazon sales ranking of ABPG
titles
Sales rank, as provided by Amazon, can be used to determine some manner of unit sales of ABPG titles, providing:
-Amazon’s market position is significant enough to
be used as an indicator of ABPG titles. This has been established.
-ABPG does not offer Amazon special pricing or
discounts, promotional support, etc which would make Amazon not typical of
other on-line sources selling ABPG titles. Nothing on Amazon’s site reveals any
ABPG title listed differently, no out of the ordinary comments, no highlighting
or announcements of specials listings of ABPG titles. If ABPG has provided
Amazon a “better” discount, Amazon has done nothing to drive ABPG titles to
gain that extra.
-If other sources are provided special treatment by
ABPG or are having sales directed to them
away from Amazon or other sources and , the influence can be evaluated
as to effectual or not. Discussed later.
-That individual sources are not, on their own,
providing ABPG titles preferential treatment.
-That ABPG titles are distinct and sell greater
through “specialty” niche sources.
-That Amazon sales rank can be converted to unit
sales. Discussed later.
-Buyers of ABPG titles are not uniquely different or
would seek sources to buy outside the norm.
The possibility of ABPG sales directed to other than Amazon sources.
It could be, Amazon is not indicative of the typical source buyers use when purchasing ABPG books. Greater sales of the same ABPG titles could be generated through Publishers Direct and/or all other available on-line sources proportionately greater than is typical for Amazon or for that matter most any other book by most any other publisher. In other words, one or perhaps two sources seem to have created an affinity for ABPG readers and in turn dominate sales.
Publishers
Direct does have a unique relationship with ABPG.
-As stated earlier, Publishers
Direct offerings are almost exclusively ABPG titles.
-Many, but not all ABPG authors do have web sites in which Publishers Direct is noted as a site to purchase. HOWEVER, most of these author sites lists other sources as well, some do not list Publishers Direct and none do anything to distinguish nor direct readers to one site over another. AND, all ABPG writers do not have web sites.
-It is possible Publishers Direct may be the first source listing ABPG titles and authors, anxious for readers to receive copies, directs initial interest to this site. This too could be more family and friend related sales. BUT, this initial interest is short term as other sites with greater reader pull pick up the titles. Either way, a single source advantage has not been determined to carry through long term.
-Publishers Direct does little to promote their site and
in many search engines is not even listed. UNLIKELY readers are more aware of
Publishers Direct than other sources
-Publishers Direct is very visible with the offer of
discounts, BUT price conscious buyers can find many ABPG titles listed at lower
prices from sources other than
Publishers Direct.
-Those ABPG titles found with the highest sales ranking
on Amazon are not even listed as “Best Sellers” on Publishers Direct. Some
titles on both sites would indicate some level of comparable sales
-ABPG writers are directing readers to Publishers
Direct through word of mouth This scenario will be covered later.
-Writers finding ABPG and then directed to Publisher
Direct are buying greater quantities of ABPG titles than they would of titles
listed on other publisher’s site. This seems very unlikely. BUT ABPG authors
may be buying each other’s books. This too will be addressed later.
Publishers Direct as the
predominant source of ABPG title sales.
Broadly speaking readers buy books on “educated” impulse the result of browsing or seek a source to buy what they desire.
-Buyers may have a subject/topic in mind and browse a
specific category to locate the information desired.
-Buyers may browse a bookstore, be attracted
to a title, “educate” themselves, via, thumbing through, reading reviews etc.
and make the decision to buy or not.
-Buyers may have
a specific title in mind and go to a source (bookstore, merchandiser, on-line
etc.) to purchase.
Title
selection of ABPG titles listed on Publishers Direct does not indicate any
particular classification that is extraordinary to a norm. nor indicate any
specialty genre. And, other than price, Publishers Direct does not indicate any
other form of uniqueness in what is carried.
Publishers
Direct does, however address the buying habit of “browsing.”
-Publishers Direct does invite readers to Browse the
aisle. Categorized by standard classifications.
-Publishers direct does offer sample
chapters.
-Publishers Direct displays books in a size closer to the actual than other sites.
But,
Publishers Direct does little to
initially attract the general reader to the site. And sample chapters are too
few to influence selection and buying of any other title where sample chapters
are not provided.
Publishers Direct is unique to other on-line sources and one which readers may find easy to navigate and, though offering mostly one publisher’s titles, may find something to satisfy reader’s desires. But it too might be likened to an unmapped oasis in a desert, found more by chance.
ABPG writers “pushing” readers to Publishers Direct, or other than Amazon sources.
Of
those ABPG authors with web sites most direct buyers to not only Publishers
Direct but Amazon Barnes and Noble, Border etc..
-BUT, no ABPG writer’s site shows
preference of purchase source over another
-A FEW ABPG writers sites do not
include Publishers Direct
Some
sites offer the opportunity to purchase from the author, including in some
cases an autographed copy, which would lessen the likelihood of a sale to any
other source.
It would appear, ABPG writers web sites show no preference to any individual source to
buy books
Word of mouth
recommendations could tend toward the familiar sites equally if not more than
Publishers Direct. But some writers may, through word of mouth, push toward
Publishers Direct where higher prices exist thus greater royalties could be
made.
Author
appearances if at a bookstore and stock was not available would tend toward the
“loyalty” of providing the host first “right” to the sale.
-Author appearances, readings/signing would include
some initial stock provided by the writer, not ABPG.
Appearances
at other than bookstores, e.g. libraries, book clubs, may permit writers to influence source to
buy, but would require a significant number of appearances with significant
number of attendees by a significant number of ABPG writers to influence one
source over another enough to make one source predominate.
A
review of ABPG web sites to date reveals little appearance activity to generate
numbers to push sales to any one source.
ABPG and Publishers Direct have nothing listed to indicate writer’s appearances, even under the ABPG heading of Press Release.
No existing on-line source has indicated any promotions to drive readers to ABPG titles.
Given the available source
to purchase ABPG titles it is fairly safe to conclude ABPG titles sales are not
uniquely different nor follow a pattern different than most any other book
given the categories of style of book.
Of those ABPG titles with ranking on Amazon, the average rank is between 1,800,000 to 1, 900,000. Titles with no sales were not factored into the average.
Depending
on the source, as to how Amazon sales rank relates to unit sales this places average ABPG sales in number of
books from 2 in total for a given year
providing other book sales do not alter a ranking; to 2 per month per title.
Source
examples:
Source One Rank of None = no sales
1.7 to 1.8 million =
one sale
500,000 = two to three sales
60,000 = one book/week
10,000 = 10 to 15 books/week
Source two Rank of 800,000 to 900,000 = 3 sales
1.2 million rank = 2 sales
None = no sales
Amazon ranking changes based upon rank. Higher numbers
-as in best sellers- may changes hourly, low number monthly and in between, weekly. In addition some seem to
think 2 books/month if ranking remains stable could indicate two books each
month. Others seem to indicate, at the low rank unless there is much movement
of other titles, a book which sells 2 copies one month and nothing after could
essentially still report the same ranking with in a period of time.
No matter the explanation of ranking, on average ABPG titles listed on Amazon typically sell fewer than 20 copies/title annually and very likely less than 10 copies annually.
Even
the highest ranked ABPG titles (represents less than 10% of total) are selling
less than one copy/week and those clustering in the 200,000 to 600,000 range are selling 2 to 3 within their ranking
period.
All
this must be weighted against the 18% of ABPG titles on Amazon with a ranking
of “None.”
Given no proven to date buyers preference of one source over another when purchasing ABPG titles, Amazon unit sales of ABPG titles could apply to ABPG title sales through other sources.
Those ABPG titles common to both Amazon and Barnes and
Noble.com would indicate sales volumes in the of ABPG titles listed on Barnes
and Noble in the range 20
copies/title annually and very likely
less than 10 copies annually of titles listed.
All ABPG titles are
not listed or available through Amazon or Barnes and Noble.
Given 34% of ABPG
titles are either not listed on, or have no sales through Amazon places the average
ABPG sale through Amazon is 2 to 3 books/title every two month.
Only 10% of ABPG tiles are available for sale new on Barnes and Noble placing the average ABPG sale through Barnes and Noble at 1 book/title every five months.
Other Possible Source and Sales of ABPG Titles.
Sales
of ABPG titles can be derived from family/friends, and from other ABPG writers.
Word of mouth to the former could direct readers to Publishers Direct as well
as any other source.
-Assume family/friends totaled 100 and each year a writer’s circle of acquaintances grew by 25. First
year sales would average less than 10/month and two/month each year after.
--The argument that each
friend could have 100 friends etc. implies more than “familial obligation” to
buy and is unsound for no better reason than distance makes the writer a stranger and decreases the obligation to
buy.
--For this scenario to be
true would make every ABPG so unique to
be unbelievable, and if rue would be easily promoted.
--The family/friend scenario
is more reflective of a vanity press model and no example exists of this type
of exponential growth.
Family/friend purchases of
any ABPG title
could be large compared to sales to readers not acquainted with the writer, but
if they occur are likely to be early in the titles life cycle and diminish or
disappear after the books release and likely
would average 8 copies/month
Each
ABPG writer could be buying a copy of each author’s title. This however would mean only 210 copies for each title spread
over some period of time.
-The buying cycle would vary but, even a voracious reader, e.g. one book/week would require four years to complete the purchasing cycle. Two books/month, 24/year, nine years to complete the cycle, and so forth..
-It could be argued; writers are a more voracious group of readers; but if true it does not mean all subjects. It could be restrictive to writer’s interests as to their own area of concentration.
-or, writers spend too much time on their craft to have time to read to ant level greater than the norm.
If
ABPG writers read two ABPG books per month would require four years to complete
the cycle. Given too about 35 ABPG title
are added each year, and if these were added last to the writers last would add two books/month after the four
year cycle. And it would require new ABPG writer to wait four years before
existing writers would begin to purchase copies of their books. However their
cycle would have the existing base of 210 plus the 34 other new titles.
Regardless
of cycle, or date the ABPG author signed, the
potential sales per writer of books purchased by other ABPG writers is 2
books/month with initial growth of 17% the
first year, and decreasing each year after, unless new ABPG authors are
signing at a greater than normal rate.
All
this assumes: ALL ABGP writers are buying, or will buy all other ABPG titles.
That ALL ABPG writers will read two ABPG books each month. This too ASSUMES all
ABGP writers who are no longer associated with ABPG (refer to publication date information) are
still purchasing. If not, then most if not all growth is negated.
More
realistic might be half of all ABPG
writers buy other ABPG titles and at one per month. Excluding purchasing merely
as “loyalty” to the publisher, there remains the fact all titles available will
not meet the tastes or needs of all writers. The few ABPG authors contacted to
date do not indicate sales to other ABPG writers close to a one book/month
level.
Considering a best possible scenario of sales to
half of all existing ABPG writers reading any two ABPG titles at random would
result in an average 2/month over four years to and less than one/month after.
(takes into consideration 40 new writers signing each year and half buying each
title at random of existing titles. Or
an average of 24 sales per title annually.
The possibility does exist
for buyers to not locating ABPG titles on bookstores shelves to
place the order at the
store.
Several considerations must be addressed for this to have any significance.
-Readers would be looking for ABPG titles in a store. Not Likely unless directed there by an ABPG writer, and if so it would be a few select few titles, a select few location, and independent bookstores at best, or a generic “Any Barnes and Noble.” ABPG does not focus on bookstore shelves.
-Readers have no access to the internet, or are unaware ABGP titles can be purchased on line. Not typical, nor does this match the typical share of book sales held by on-line sources. It would assume ABGP readers do not fit the norm in buying habits. On-line purchasing is typically for less (bookstores many times charge additional for handling and may require longer shipping times as they may be purchasing from distribution who may not have stock and then order from the publisher).
-These orders would be termed special and are not to be confused with back orders.
There exist a wide range of available titles by bookstore. Mega stores may stock over one hundred thousand titles or even books while smaller independent may carry 10 to 20 thousand books some to many of particular titles. Both may warehouse and not have books on the shelves.
-It would seem, the fewer titles carried the greater the frequency of special ordering. But, many small independents specialize in subject and not all ABPG even if shelved would be offered. Similarly most general readers would not seek some ABPB titles at those locations merely by the subjects carried.
--The few independent contacted have not special ordered any ABPG title --Special orders of other titles may range from one or two per week to 10.
--Some buyers may initially go to a “Mega” store simply with the belief a specialty title will be found more easily.
--ABPG authors may recommend readers go to bookstores, knowing their titles are on the shelves, placed there at their expense, very low percentage of ABPG titles, and these books are essentially “used” no matter the pristine condition, merely in that they are being resold.
--ABPG authors may direct readers to a bookstore in hopes some demand will be made and the store will order for shelves. Low likelihood, lowered when one store in a chain experiences the demand and this does not “push” the demand to other stores.
Bookstores
contacted report less than 5% of sales are special order per week. Of the
nearly two million titles available, with less than 20% on bookstore shelves
but possible stocked and or available
via distribution, places special order sales at approximately 30,000 weekly
spread over all brick and motor nationally, or a few titles per store per week.
The
sample of stores contacted could not recall ever special ordering an ABPG
title, though admittedly most would recall the title rather than the publisher.
But,
the potential of sales of some ABPG titles ordered in stores does exist, though
most likely for selected titles in selected locals. The likelihood for greater
special ordering at stores of ABGP titles must take into consideration the
following:
-The reader/buyers desire to order. Readers locating ABPG
on Publishers Direct will not buy unless they have viewed the physical book
first. Since books are not available in stores the buyer than might; seek
another store, place the order at the
store or return home and order on-line. Likely the latter scenario.
-Readers are directed to go to stores for ABPG titles.
ABPG writers, as previously discussed may influence this choice but it is not
proven that stores will then stock, nor that buyers will necessarily order from
the store.
-ABPG does list specific locations such as Barnes and Noble and Borders but buyers will not find the titles and again are not necessarily compelled to order in the store.
Given,
ABPG lack of emphasis on the brick and mortar sector, the large share of
readers familiar with and using on-line sources, the relatively higher price to
order through the store versus on-line leaves only one primary “special order”
scenario
Special
order purchasing of ABPG titles is primarily driven via writer’s appearances
and only if the stock of books for the signing is exhausted. Given how few ABPG
writers have appearances with any frequency would indicate only a few copies
ever ordered in bookstores. An estimated
100 ABPG titles sold by special order through brick and mortar could be
reasonable or less than one copy per title annually.
Sales conclusion
Based upon the analysis to date it would appear the single largest sales group of ABPG titles is friends and family. This would seem primary in the first year of the titles availability and would decline rapidly after that. Further, sales reflective of non-related buyers would indicate the only “stable” group of buyers.
The difficulty in determining a possible average sales of ABPG title lies in source of purchase. The analysis can determine the likely sales through any given source but does not mean all source sales potential is additive. For example, it may be determined sales to friends and family is is 100 but those sales could be spread among all sources of purchase. On the other hand, if the 100 units sold were from one source the other sources known or calculated potential sales could be added to the 100.
To determine a more likely sales figure requires sales potential by source type to be factored to the actual share each source represents. Given ABPG titles do reflect a broad range of reader types, and nothing to date indicates any predominate source selected by buyers of ABPG titles, than the sales distribution as it pertains to the industry as a whole should apply.
-Even if Publishers Direct unique relationship with ABPG and possibly in turn to ABPG writers it has not been proven ABPG writers direct readers to Publishers Direct to any greater extent than others sources. The exception could be family and friends..
-Thus, following retail norms sales for family and friends for example would be distributed proportionally by all sources.
-Similarly all non-related sales would be proportionate to source based on likeliness of buyer selection.
Simply stated, though a potential for sales exist within each source where ABPG titles are sold, the likelihood that other sources will be selected will follow established buying practice in the industry. HOWEVER, Since there exists the potential for Publishers Direct to have a great share of family and friend and ABGP writers/readers we will present the sales potential in three forms: Equal distribution following industry norms, Publishers Direct having 100% of Family/ Friends and ABGP writer sales and 50% of Family/Friends and ABPG writers.
-On-line sources sales of books are approximately 9.5 billion and Amazon and BN.com represent 32% of the total. Based upon the average 50% availability of ABPG titles at Amazon and Barnes and Noble and from the sample, the lack of availability of ABPG titles, of the remaining 65% of the sources where ABPG titles could be sold is half or, All other sources combined equal the sales of ABGP titles as seen at Amazon and BN.com. (see North American books sales earlier).Other on-line sources includes Publishers Direct
Given the average
annual sale of ABGP titles through Amazon and B/N.com is 17 then all other
on-line source would be approximately 17 or
an average 34 books
sales/ year/ ABPG
title.
-If Publisher Direct had all family and friends and the ABPG writers and not reflective in Amazon and BN.com would mean an additional 124 sales/title in the first year, and an additional 24 the following years.
-If Publishers Direct had 50% of Family/friends and other ABPG
writer the 62 additional titles in the first year and 12 the following years.
Given the large
share of potential sales to Family/friends and other ABPG writers the average
best case scenario for an average sale of an ABPG title is 160 copies in the
first year, 60 for the following years.
Without Family/Friends
and sales to ABPG authors (removal of sales to intimates) the average sales of
an ABPG title to the typical reader is estimated to be 34 books annually.
FINDINGS TO DATE
Generally, many of
the claims made by both American Book Publishing Group and Publishers Direct
Discount Bookstore can not be shown to be accurate when compared to sales,
title availability, or selection criteria.
Specifically, ABPG
claims that good books should be available, they stock their books, is
questionable:
-Only half the titles are listed on two of the major on-line sources;
Amazon and Barnes and Noble.
-If stock is available for all titles, then it is not sufficient to
meet the requirements of both Publishers Direct Discount Bookstore and Barnes
and Noble.
-The
few titles listed prior to a publication date of 2002 creates doubts about
availability for titles before that date. And, at the least creates questions
as to why the titles are either no longer available, or no longer given
“support” in as much as being listed, and/or easily located by “browsing the
aisles” at Publishers Direct Discount Bookstore.
Further, ABPG’s
claim to select manuscripts with promise, if intended to mean sales potential is proven only if
“promise” is understood to mean sales to the general reader on average of 35 copies per year. Further cause
to question ABPG’s effectiveness in marketing when many ABPG titles have no sales on Amazon.
That no evidence to
date indicates ABPG does much to promote any individual book in either
catalogues or newsletter, that, the existence of these items has not been
established to date.
ABGP by it’s own
admission does not focus on brick and mortar outlets and it appears
concentrates heavily on on-line sources. That only one; Publishers Direct
Discount Bookstore seems to offer most if not all ABPG titles, whereas all
other sources, on average, only list half.
If an innovative
marketing plan exists, no matter the content or the level to which it has been followed,
it’s success, as measured by sales to the general reader, is proven only if 35
copies per year on average per title is considered success.
It appears, the
single largest potential buyer group of any ABPG title would be other ABPG
writers, followed by each writers circle of friends and family, with the latter
having the greatest likelihood to buy. Yet combined, these sales would be
greatest in the first year, should not be termed as part of a “long and
successful sales run.”
Publishers Direct
Discount Bookstore has a unique relationship with American Book Publishing
Group which for whatever reasons on either’s part makes American Book
Publishing Group it’s single largest customer.
Publishers Direct
claim of discounts pertains to a discount on an initial price, above the industry standard, and remains there even
after the discount.
Publishers Direct
Discount Bookstore’s claim to offer unbeatable prices is not true when other
sources offer the same titles, on average for less.
Publishers Direct
claim of prices typically 5 to 46% lower is untrue. The typical discount is 5%
(90% of the discounts offered) and other sources sell some of the same titles
for discounts greater than the 5%, resulting, in an overall average selling
price lower than that of Publishers Direct.
Publishers Direct
claim of not being owned by any publishers is questionable given the vast
majority of titles are from a publisher with whom they share office space.